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<Research>HTSC Lifts COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) TP to $19.8, Citing High Prosperity in Container Shipping Industry
Huatai Securities noted in a report that since the beginning of this year, affected by strong export demand and the Red Sea crisis, container freight rates have risen sharply, and ...
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<Research>HTSC Lifts COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) TP to $19.8, Citing High Prosperity in Container Shipping Industry
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Huatai Securities noted in a report that since the beginning of this year, affected by strong export demand and the Red Sea crisis, container freight rates have risen sharply, and the market is in high prosperity. Looking ahead to 2H24, the broker expected that circumvention of the Red Sea will continue and route adjustments will lead to an increase in transhipment cargo volume, with port congestion appearing gradually since May. On the demand side, 3Q24 will be the traditional peak season in Europe and the US, and cargo volume will rise QoQ, driving freight rates to hike further QoQ.

In the medium to long term, Huatai expected that the number of newly delivered ships will increase from 2023 to 2026, but industry restructuring will lead to structural changes in the deployment of capacity. The new capacity in emerging markets will increase significantly, while the growth in tonne-nautical mile demand is expected to push up the profitability pivot of the industry.

Related NewsDaiwa Downgrades COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK) to Sell, Axes TP to $9.5
Considering the uptrend in freight rates, Huatai lifted its net profit forecast on COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)  -0.300 (-2.747%)    Short selling $94.91M; Ratio 28.705%   for 2024-2026 to RMB58.6 billion, RMB16.4 billion and RMB24.5 billion respectively, compared to the original forecast of RMB24.6 billion, RMB16.1 billion and RMB23.3 billion. Citing the current high industry prosperity, the broker also lifted its target price on COSCO SHIP HOLD H-shares from $11.5 to $19.8 and reiterated its Buy rating. Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 50%, the full-year dividend yield would be 10%.

Huatai estimated that COSCO SHIP HOLD will make a net profit of RMB58.6 billion this year, based on a 50% YoY increase in the average tariffs of the European and Trans-Pacific routes. As of the end of 1Q24, the company had RMB174.4 billion in cash, which is expected to further increase to RMB202.1 billion by the end of 2024.

(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-07-19 16:25.)

Related NewsJPM Focuses on Interim Results Apart From Policy Factors, Lists Focus Stocks in MSCI China Index (Table)

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