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<Research Report>UBS Lowers AIA (01299.HK) TP to $90, Citing 31.5% Growth in VNB Last Yr on AER Basis
UBS issued a research report on AIA (01299.HK), which will release its FY23 results before the market opens on 14 March. AIA's value of new business (VNB) is forecasted to grow...
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<Research Report>UBS Lowers AIA (01299.HK) TP to $90, Citing 31.5% Growth in VNB Last Yr on AER Basis
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UBS issued a research report on AIA (01299.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $354.24M; Ratio 17.064%   , which will release its FY23 results before the market opens on 14 March. AIA's value of new business (VNB) is forecasted to grow by 31.5% and 34% YoY respectively on actual exchange rate (AER) and constant exchange rate (CER) bases, which implied a 28% AER and 26% CER growth in 4FQ23. This is a slower pace compared to the first 3 quarters of FY23, which saw 33% AER and 36% CER growth respectively.

UBS highlighted that AIA's China business grew strongly in 4FQ23 and is still expected to achieve VNB growth of approximately 15%-19% on a CER basis. However, the company is expected to revise downward its forecasts for the long-term investment return and risk discount rate for its China business, and the broker anticipated that VNB will increase by about 13%-17% for the full year this year.

Related NewsNomura Foresees AIA's Strong VONB Growth Intact; 1Q Growth 20% YoY on AER
As for the Hong Kong market, UBS attributed AIA's QoQ VNB growth recorded in 4FQ23 mainly to an increase in the contribution of Mainland Chinese Visitors (MCV), and the broker forecasted the insurer's Hong Kong VNB to grow by more than 90% for the whole of last year. Demand from MCV this year will remain supported by the continued demand for wealth diversification in the face of falling interest rates in China, as well as factors such as the Top Talent Pass programme.

UBS forecasted AIA's 2023 operating profit after tax (OPAT) growth to moderate YoY, implying a YoY growth of approximately 3% in 2H23, and a 5% increase in dividend payout per share to $1.61. It also lowered its 2023 and 2024 net profit after tax (NPAT) forecasts by 7% and 4% respectively, and trimmed its 2023 embedded value forecast by 1%.

The broker trimmed its target price on AIA from $95 to $90 accordingly, and the rating remained Buy.

Related NewsM Stanley Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VNB to Lift 19% YoY in AER Terms
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-04-17 16:25.)

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