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《大行》招商證券:中國大模型行業Agent商業化勢不可擋 首予智譜(02513.HK)與MiniMax(00100.HK)「增持」評級
招商證券國際發表報告指,中國大模型行業Agent商業化飛輪勢不可擋,首次覆蓋智譜(02513.HK)與MiniMax(00100.HK),予「增持」評級,兩家公司擁有不同市場定位及競爭壁壘,當前正處於商業化加速期,大模型行業正站在Agent能力的爆發階段。報告指,過去數年,中國大模型行業經歷了飛速發展,從對話式AI到多模態融合,從推理增強到Agent能力提升...
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《大行》招商證券:中國大模型行業Agent商業化勢不可擋 首予智譜(02513.HK)與MiniMax(00100.HK)「增持」評級
Recommend
39
Positive
54
Negative
34
 
 

招商證券國際發表報告指,中國大模型行業Agent商業化飛輪勢不可擋,首次覆蓋智譜(02513.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $61.02M; Ratio 33.796%   與MiniMax(00100.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $67.76M; Ratio 28.938%   ,予「增持」評級,兩家公司擁有不同市場定位及競爭壁壘,當前正處於商業化加速期,大模型行業正站在Agent能力的爆發階段。

報告指,過去數年,中國大模型行業經歷了飛速發展,從對話式AI到多模態融合,從推理增強到Agent能力提升,模型智能和技術範式不斷精進。中國日均Token消耗量從2024年初1,000億飆升至3月140萬億,兩年內增長超千倍,核心驅動力來自Agent持續推進帶來的調用量暴增。全球大模型市場規模預計從2024年107億美元增長至2029年2,065億美元,年複合增長率80.7%。中國AI市場2030年預計達9,930億元,2024-2030年年複合增長率35.5%,企業級大模型市場年複合增速將達到64%。

報告指,大模型競爭在全球範圍已縮圈至中美對決格局。根據弗若斯特沙利文,中美兩國佔據全球大模型數量的86%。美國在基礎算法、芯片等底層技術上保持領先,但中國先進模型與美國的差距迅速縮窄。美國在閉源模型領先,中國在開源權重模型陣營領跑。中國大模型行業的競爭已不再單一地比拼模型跑分。模型智能決定了廠商的天花板和品牌影響力;多模態能力開辟了內容創意、行業落地等新戰場;而「架構效率」則直接影響商業化落地成本、企業盈利能力以及應用的普惠性。未來,能夠在這三個維度中找到平衡點,並將其與自身生態、商業模式深度融合的廠商,將更有可能在高度分化的競爭
格局中勝出。

報告指,智譜與MiniMax作為純大模型賽道的代表性企業,均聚焦AI全模態佈局,憑借技術專注度高、決策鏈條短、中立性強的優勢,與阿里、字節等綜合廠商形成差異化競爭。

該行持續看好智譜以追求模型智能上界為核心,在編程能力持續深化技術壁壘和商業化閉環,持續提升模型定價權。預計2025-2028收入年複合增速為172%,經調整淨虧損率從2025年的-439%大幅收窄至
2028年的-14%。基於SOTP估值,目標價為1,282港元,對應68倍/35倍27/28財年前瞻市銷率。

該行持續看好MiniMax以全模態自研×極致成本效率為核心的市場定位,後續關注M3模型重磅叠代。預計2025-2028收入年複合增速為193%,經調整淨虧損率從2025年的-317%大幅收窄至2028年的-12%,基於SOTP估值,目標價為982港元,對應43倍/20倍27/28財年前瞻市銷率。(ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-12 16:25.)

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