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《績後》一文綜合大行於渣打(02888.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
渣打集團(02888.HK)上周四(4月30日)公布今年首季業績優預期,上周四股價走高1.9%,今早(5月4日)高開4.3%後,盤中曾高見201元一度升5.3%,最新股價升3.9%報198.3元。摩根大通表示,渣打首季營收和稅前溢利分別超出市場預期6%和14%,受惠貸款和存款增長支撐穩健淨利息收入(比預期高3%),非利息收入強勁,強勁淨新資金流入推動創紀錄的...
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《績後》一文綜合大行於渣打(02888.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
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渣打集團(02888.HK)  +4.100 (+2.113%)    Short selling $3.51M; Ratio 3.641%   上周四(4月30日)公布今年首季業績優預期,上周四股價走高1.9%,今早(5月4日)高開4.3%後,盤中曾高見201元一度升5.3%,最新股價升3.9%報198.3元。摩根大通表示,渣打首季營收和稅前溢利分別超出市場預期6%和14%,受惠貸款和存款增長支撐穩健淨利息收入(比預期高3%),非利息收入強勁,強勁淨新資金流入推動創紀錄的財富管理收入、全球銀行部門收入及良好的流量收入。但減值撥備較預期高3%,其中包括與中東衝突相關的1.9億美元管理層疊加撥備。普通股一級資本充足率比預期低40個基點,但仍處於目標區間。總體每股季度盈利實現31%按年增長,有形股本回報率按年升260個基點至17.4%。該行認為業績紮實。該行維持渣打「增持」評級及目標價270元。

渣打於上周四中午公布,首季業績經營收入按年升10%至59.02億美元,除稅前溢利按年升17%至24.5億美元,高於本網綜合3間券商預測上限的22.46億元;每股盈利74.2美仙。期內淨利息收入升1%至29億美元。非利息收入升16%至30億美元。淨息差下跌7個基點至2.05厘,原因是減息及邊際利潤受壓的影響部分被債務組合改善所抵銷。渣打維持全年的指引,包括列賬基準經營收入按年升5%至7%範圍的較低水平(按固定匯率基準計算),淨利息收入料大致按年持平。列賬基準成本將大致持平(按固定匯率基準計算),包括「提效增益」計劃最後一年的支出。法定有形股東權益回報將高於12%。

【摩通指非利息收入推動季績勝預期】

摩根大通表示,歡迎渣打更詳細的中東地區風險敞口披露,其中概述約400億美元的風險敞口,約佔總風險敞口6%或集團總資產4%,其中超過90%位於企業及投資銀行部門,並偏向於主權關聯交易對手;相關敞口超過75%為投資級別,且對商業房地產和酒店業的行業敞口有限。該行預計市場對渣打今年至2028年每股收益預期將有低個位數上調。重申對渣打「增持」評級,目標價270元。

高盛指出,由於渣打第一季度業績超預期以及假設的貸款損失撥備較溫和,上調對渣打今年每股盈利預測5%,同時部分被該年度更高的假設經營支出所抵消。對渣打明年及後年每股盈利預測基本不變,主要假設收入略有上升,尤其是在非淨利息收入方面。考慮到近期盈利能力改善,以及戰略計劃持續執行而適度調高的可持續有形股本回報率假設,該行對渣打目標價由237元上調至243元,評級「買入」。

【花旗料渣打維持收入增長指引區間】

花旗上調對渣打今年每股盈利預測12%,明年及後年每股盈利預測上調4%至5%,主要受更高財富管理收入和更高銀行部門收入驅動。該行表示,對渣打今年收入看法較指引略微樂觀,對成本看法則大體一致。在本月19至21日的投資者日,該行預計渣打將維持5%至7%的收入年複合增長率區間,再次強調收入增長快於支出,並重申30至35個基點的跨周期貸款損失指引。該行料這將轉化為2028年超過15%有形股本回報率目標,對比該行及市場預期的15.1%至15.2%。該行對渣打目標價由194元上調至209港元,重申「中性」評級。

-----------------------------------------------

本網最新綜合6間券商對其投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價
摩根大通│增持│270元
高盛│買入│237元->243元
華泰証券│增持│242.24元
富瑞│買入│239.4元(2,250便士)
花旗│中性│194元->209元
摩根士丹利│增持│195元

券商│觀點
摩根大通│季度收入及稅前溢利勝預期,有形股本回報率升至17.4%
高盛│季績勝預期,受惠非利息收入強勁
華泰証券│財富管理強勁驅動業績高增
富瑞│季績顯示財富業務明顯強勁
花旗│上調今年至2028年每股盈利測,主要受財富管理及銀行收入推動
摩根士丹利│季度稅前溢利勝預期受強勁收入推動,CET1比率較預期低30點子
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-13 16:25.)

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