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MAS Slightly Raises S$NEER Appreciation Slope as Expected
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released its April monetary policy statement, noting that Singapore's economic growth will moderate over the remainder of this year, with ...
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MAS Slightly Raises S$NEER Appreciation Slope as Expected
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released its April monetary policy statement, noting that Singapore's economic growth will moderate over the remainder of this year, with the output gap expected to average around zero. Imported energy costs have risen, and more imported goods and services are expected to see price increases in the coming quarters. As a result, MAS Core Inflation will pick up and remain elevated over the next few quarters.

Accordingly, MAS will slightly increase the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), in line with market expectations, while keeping the width and the centre of the policy band unchanged. MAS remains well-positioned to respond effectively to any risks to medium-term price stability and will continue to closely monitor economic developments amid external uncertainties. MAS also stands ready to curb excessive volatility in the S$NEER.

Singapore has tightened monetary policy, becoming the first economy in Asia to respond to rising inflation risks driven by higher energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. The country uses the exchange rate, rather than interest rates, as its main policy tool. The Singapore dollar slipped 0.1% during the Asian session to 1.2737 against USD.

MAS said that since late February, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted, leading to sharp increases in global crude oil, natural gas and related chemical prices. Physical shortages and rising import prices have emerged in Asia. In the coming quarters, higher inflation will also erode real incomes and dampen final demand.

MAS noted that overall economic growth among Singapores major trading partners will come in below previous expectations, reflecting weaker industrial production and spending. Nevertheless, economic activity in some advanced markets should remain relatively resilient, while global investment related to artificial intelligence is expected to continue in the near term.

According to advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapores economy expanded strongly by 4.6% YoY in 1Q26. Growth continued to be supported by manufacturing and services clusters linked to the global AI capital expenditure cycle. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Singapores GDP fell 0.3% QoQ in 1Q26, compared with a 1.3% expansion in the previous quarter, reflecting an expected moderation in trade-related and modern services clusters after strong performance at the end of last year.

The outlook for shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. At the same time, accumulated energy supply shortfalls and higher input costs will continue to weigh on Singapores economic prospects, putting pressure on value added in energy-dependent industries such as petrochemicals and transport. As rising import costs increasingly filter through over time, profitability across more sectors will be affected. Nevertheless, ongoing global AI-related capital expenditure and resilient regional electronics production should sustain activity in Singapores technology-related industries. Stable pipelines of domestic public infrastructure and housing investment will also support growth.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid and highly uncertain. Full-year 2026 GDP growth is likely to moderate from the above-trend pace seen in 2025, while the positive output gap will narrow. The previous GDP growth forecast of 2% to 4% will be updated in May.

In January and February 2026, MAS Core Inflation held steady at 1.2% YoY, unchanged from the previous quarter. Prior to the Middle East conflict, import costs for oil and food were lower than a year earlier, and regional inflation was moderate. Domestically, higher subsidies led to a decline in pre-school education CPI in January.

However, Singapores import prices for crude oil, natural gas and fuel have risen significantly, which will directly push up CPI inflation for electricity, gas and transport-related items in the coming months. Even if Middle East supply recovers, global energy prices may remain elevated for some time due to delivery delays, the time needed for full supply restoration and rebuilding of energy reserves by governments, which will add to pent-up demand. As higher energy costs pass through global supply chains, more of Singapores import costs will rise, and prices of imported intermediate and final consumer goods are expected to increase. As a result, inflation in domestic non-cooked food, retail goods and other consumer items is also set to firm.

MAS has raised its forecasts for both MAS Core Inflation and headline CPI inflation to 1.5% to 2.5%, from the previous 1% to 2%. For non-core components, private transport inflation will increase due to higher fuel prices, but subdued growth in housing rents over the past year will partially offset the impact by keeping housing inflation contained.

MAS said there are significant risks surrounding the inflation and growth outlook. Prolonged energy supply disruptions would intensify global inflationary pressures and deepen the drag on growth. Shortages of critical intermediate inputs could also abruptly disrupt industrial production. Further tightening in global financial conditions or an unexpected pullback in AI-related investment could exacerbate downside risks to growth. (da/j)



This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.

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