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JPMorgan Asset Mgmt's Tai Hui Feels Cautiously Optimistic on Ceasefire Due to Short-Term Volatility in US-Iran Talks
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The latest announcement by the US and Iran of a two-week truce marks a positive first step for both sides to return to the negotiating table, even though the talks are probably still fragile, said Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management. Given significant short-term volatility in negotiations and the still-unclear role and stance of Israel, Hui feels cautiously optimistic about a ceasefire in the conflict. If a ceasefire is achieved in 2Q26, Hui believes oil prices could fall back to around USD80 per barrel, but it would be unlikely to drop further to USD60 per barrel. Nevertheless, if negotiations break down and Iran escalates military actions or further damages nearby energy facilities, oil prices could soar to as high as USD120 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. Auto-translated by AI AASTOCKS Financial News |
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