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<Research>Nomura Estimates ~2.2% of CN GDP to Be Directly Impacted by Tariffs
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Nomura has released a report estimating the impact of Donald Trump's 145% additional tariffs on China's GDP, manufacturing sector, fixed asset investment, and employment. In 2024, the US directly accounts for 14.7% of China's total goods exports, according to the report. If re-exports through Hong Kong were included, this figure would have escalated to 15.2%, or, if other re-export routes were also factored in, to 20.6%. Since about 16.3% of exported goods are exempt from "reciprocal" tariffs, Nomura predicted that around 2.2% of China's GDP would be directly affected by the tariffs. Assuming a 50% loss in exports to the US, China could lose about 1.1% of its GDP in the near term. The actual loss could even be greater as the impact will spill over into other sectors, especially the service industries that support goods exports. AAStocks Financial News |
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