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UBS Revises Global GDP Forecast 3 Times in 2 Wks, Estimates 2.5% Growth This Yr to Be 2.5ppts Lower than 'No-tariff Baseline'
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Arend Kapteyn, Global Head of Economics & Strategic Research at UBS, released a report estimating the value of the new US tariffs to be about US$780 billion, equivalent to 2.5% of US GDP. That is almost exactly the same as the reciprocal tariffs proposed on 2 April, which were then subsequently paused for 90 days, and to which technology product exemptions were added last week. The escalating tariffs on China have fully offset the tariff relief from those other items. UBS has revised global growth forecasts three times in the past 2 weeks, but with the current vintage of the tariffs, the broker forecasted it to slow from 2.9% to 2.5% in 2025 and an additional 20 bps in 2026 (relative to its prior forecast; global growth will stay close to 2.5%). The level of global GDP would be 2.5 ppts lower than a no-tariff baseline, or about US$2.75 trillion. AAStocks Financial News |
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