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<Research>M Stanley Lowers Alibaba (BABA.US) TP to US$100, Expects Adjusted EBITA to Rebound 2% Last Qtr
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According to a report from Morgan Stanley, BABA-W (09988.HK) (BABA.US) will announce next month its 3FQ results as of the end of December 2024. The broker forecasted the group’s adjusted EBITA to rebound by 2% YoY, reversing the 5% decline in 2FQ, mainly due to improved profitability in its Alibaba Cloud business and a continued narrowing of losses in local services. However, its core Taobao & Tmall Group EBITA is expected to see a 2.2% drop during the period because of reinvestment drag.

Considering the group's recent sale of non-core assets such as Intime and SUNART RETAIL (06808.HK), Morgan Stanley anticipated a special dividend may be declared in the FY25 results to be announced in mid-May.

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The broker's forecasts for the group's FY25 and FY26 results remained largely unchanged, but its target price for the group's US shares was lowered from US$105 to US$100.

Even though the group managed a gradual improvement in monetization and GMV trends, the broker kept a conservative view on it and gave it an Equalweight rating in light of the fierce competition in the e-commerce industry and weak consumer demand.
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