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CPCA Estimates NEV-PV Retail Sales to Soar 20% YoY to 13.3M Units This Yr
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The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) analyzed the outlook of national passenger vehicle (PV) market in January 2025. On the basis of the measurement of the basic continuation of the policy in 2024, the domestic vehicle market will have retail sales of 23.4 million units in 2025, representing a YoY rise of 2%; and the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles (NEV-PVs) will have retail sales of 13.3 million units, representing a YoY upswing of 20%, and a penetration rate of 57%.

China’s car market in 2024 displayed a U-shaped growth trend, the CPCA said. The trade-in subsidy policies in 2H24 were resilient, which propelled the retail sales of 22.894 million vehicles in 2024 up by 5.5%.

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In 2024, the sales volume driven by the trade-in policy in various regions became more and more prominent, while the trade-in subsidy in 2025 will basically maintain the subsidy strength in 2024.

It was roughly estimated that the total subsidy demand for trade-in subsidy will be more than RMB200 billion, way more than the historical subsidy, therefore, it is meaningful to regulate the upper limit of the trade-in subsidy in various regions.
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