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UBS Projects CN 2025 GDP Growth to Ease to ~4%, 2026's to Further Slow to 3%
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Wang Tao, Head of Asian Economic Research and Chief China Economist at UBS Investment Bank, released a report, expecting China's GDP growth to decelerate to around 4% in 2025, and anticipating that the impact of the US tariff hike will be the most acute in 2026. Meanwhile, the impact of the downturn in the real estate sector will dissipate, with the real GDP growth rate slipping further to 3% in 2026. According to Wang Tao, the Chinese government may step up policy support to bolster domestic economic growth from 2025 to 2026. UBS expected that the central bank may cut interest rates by 30-40 bps in 2025. It also foresaw further depreciation of RMB, printing at 7.6 and 7.7 against USD by the end of 2025 and 2026, while the government will not actively use currency depreciation as a macro policy tool. Wang also pointed out that the tariff shock may push the Chinese government to amplify support for consumption and implement more structural reforms. Real estate sales may stabilize in 1H26, while new home starts will stabilize in mid-2026, with the decline in both narrowing to 5-10% and 10-15% respectively in 2025, and T1 cities taking the lead in stabilizing the real estate market. AAStocks Financial News |
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