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<Research>CICC: Hiking Oil Prices Intensify Inflation Risk; US Rate Cut May Be Delayed to 2H
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The US seasonally adjusted CPI lifted 0.3% QoQ and 2.4% YoY in February; core CPI rose by 0.2% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, both in line with street consensus, CICC said in a research report. The broker believed that the inflation data is broadly moderate, but the rebound in energy and food prices, coupled with the recent spike in oil prices, not only directly affects energy prices but may also further impact the production costs of food, airline tickets, manufacturing, and even clothing, potentially influencing inflation expectations and becoming a key future inflation risk. If oil prices drift higher, the US annual CPI may skyrocket. Although CPI has been generally moderate in recent months, the Federal Reserve has limited room for rate cuts in the short term, given core PCE inflation remaining at a high level and oil prices possibly pushing up inflation forecasts. Therefore, CICC predicted the Fed to keep rates on hold at next week's meeting, with the next rate cut possibly delayed to 2H26. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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