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<Research>Barclays Prefers HSBC HOLDINGS, Expects Earnings to Beat Consensus
Recommend
30
Positive
41
Negative
26
HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) is assumed to considerably beat its guidance and market forecasts in terms of earnings performance, Barclays said in a research report. This was primarily due to favorable factors in the Hong Kong market, the full integration of Hang Seng Bank, and strategic initiatives that can offset fluctuations in US policies.

Barclays predicted that US interest rates will fall to about 3%, and that HSBC's NII for 2026 and 2027 will still be 4-5% above street consensus. Even if US interest rates drop to a lower level of 2%, HSBC's performance can still meet market expectations. The broker reaffirmed its Overweight rating on HSBC listed in London (HSBA.L), raising the target price from GBP12.3 to GBP14.

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On the other hand, Barclays expected STANCHART (02888.HK) to continuously improve its RoTE over the next few years, potentially reaching 15% by 2028, mainly driven by operating leverage. However, 2026 may be a transitional year, with less apparent upside risk to earnings compared to market expectations, and RoTE may fall to 13%. The broker reaffirmed its Equalweight rating on Standard Chartered listed in London (STAN.L), raising the target price from GBP16 to GBP19.
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