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<Research>JPM: More Signs Supporting Continual Recovery in Residential Mkt Observed; Home Prices Expected to Rebound by Another ~5% by End-2026
Recommend 8 Positive 13 Negative 2 |
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Since the trough in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded by over 4%, according to JPMorgan's research report. The broker observed more signs supporting a continued recovery in the residential market, including resilient stock market performance, historically showing a decent correlation with home prices (wealth effect); suppressed demand release with transaction volumes remaining strong; banks raising property valuations, etc.. In this context, JPMorgan predicted that, by the end of 2026, home prices will rebound by another about 5%. Admittedly, the market still faces some resistance (e.g., high-risk developers may still offer discounts, while certain industries have higher unemployment rates). However, the broker believed that the aforementioned positive signs will outweigh them in the short term. Among Hong Kong developers, JPMorgan's top pick is SINO LAND (00083.HK) (with lower risk; 6% dividend yield is highly certain), followed by HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) (higher dividend yield of 6.6%, but admittedly some risk of dividend cut). If SHK PPT (00016.HK)'s share price drops to around $85, the broker would consider buying, but saw limited upside based on current valuations. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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