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<Research>G Sachs Hikes Alibaba (BABA.US) TP to US$205 Amid AI Model Breakthroughs/ Optimism for Alibaba Cloud
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Following BABA-W (09988.HK)'s stock outperformance, Goldman Sachs reframed its narrative by raising Alibaba's capex forecast for FY2026-28 to one of the highest in the market, at RMB460 billion, Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

Underpinned by breakthroughs in multimodal AI models and increasingly diversified chip supply, Goldman Sachs increased the cloud revenue growth forecast to 31%, 38%, and 37% YoY for the next three quarters.

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Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's (BABA.US) 12-month target price from US$179 to US$205, and BABA-W (09988.HK)'s from HK$174 to HK$199, given stronger visibility in its e-commerce foundational earnings and international cloud growth potential. The recent stock price weakness/ correction presented an attractive buying opportunity, hence the Buy rating was granted.

Although the group's profits plummeted due to Quick Commerce investment/ losses, Goldman Sachs assumed that the market should pay heed to the initial signs of recovery in profit growth on the Taobao-Tmall platform, Alibaba Cloud's unique full-stack AI capabilities, and the local service platform that may eventually be profitable, supporting the renewed narrative of AI + everyday consumption (Taobao + Amap) and AI + cloud hyperscaler leadership.
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