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Minsheng Securities: CN 1Q25 Outstanding Econ Performance Provides Favorable Footholds for CN-US Competition; Additional Ultra-Long-Term Special Govt Bonds Expected Mid-Yr to Support 'Two New' Policies
Recommend 52 Positive 102 Negative 35 |
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China announced this morning (16th) a YoY growth of 5.4% in its 1Q25 GDP and other important economic data, according to Minsheng Securities' research report. Specifically, China's value-added output of industries grew at a rate of 7.7% YoY in March, which further rose from 5.9% in January to February, indicating a faster pace of industrial production at the start of this year. In Minsheng Securities' opinion, although the "good start" of 1Q25 has already passed, it provides two relatively favorable footholds for the China-US competition amid the headwinds of escalating tariff conflicts. The first foothold is the transformation of China's economic structure has lowered internal vulnerabilities, with previous financial and real estate risks basically cleared. The second foothold is China's greater-than-expected resilience in fundamentals as indicated by market expectations since the escalation of the current China-US friction. According to the trend of the economic surprise index of China and the US YTD, China is in an upward channel in the positive range, while the US is in a downward channel in the negative range, a situation much better than in 2018. In Minsheng Securities' estimate, incremental policies that may see additional efforts mid-year include: focusing on addressing employment risks under external shocks, adding ultra-long-term special government bonds mid-year to further support the "two new" policies, intensifying urban village renovation, and promoting monetized resettlement. The Politburo meeting to be held in July may be an important window for the introduction of mid-year incremental policies. AAStocks Financial News |
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