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<Research>CICC: Recent Overseas Assets Concentrate in Trades on Trump Victory
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The results of the high-profile 2024 US presidential election will be announced in just two weeks, and the election is unusually stalemate, with rare events such as the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the Democrats' temporary change of commanders, CICC released a research report saying. The electorate was reversed several times as a result of these events. According to polls and betting odds, Trump recently took the lead again. In addition, CICC said that most financial assets closely related to election policies were shifting towards the 'Trump deal' since the end of September in tandem with the change in electorate sentiment. For assets, both a 'Republican victory' and a 'Trump+ Democratic House of Representatives' scenario are more likely to result in higher US bond rates and a stronger USD (but with a concern for competitive depreciation of the USD driven by administrative intervention). Even with high interest rates, gold will show value configuration due to risk aversion. The difference is that, in a “total Republican victory” scenario, the economy will grow better, and US stocks' earnings will see a bigger boost, with US bond rates likely to rise more as well. AAStocks Financial News |
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