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<Research>UBS Expects CN Brokers' 3Q NP to Rise 20-30%, Prefers CITIC SEC (06030.HK)/ HTSC (06886.HK)
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UBS released a research report estimating 3Q24 net profits of Chinese brokers under its coverage to rise 20-30% YoY (compared with a 10% drop in 9M24), with equity investment performance likely to be a major factor in the difference in results.

While the market remained sluggish in 3Q24, average daily turnover of equities and ETFs fell 12% YoY and 15% QoQ. IPO/ securities lending amounts continued to shrink, down 84%/ 88% YoY respectively.

The broker forecasted China's brokerage industry to improve, with potential catalysts including the implementation of macro/capital market policies, additional retail capital inflows and industry M&A.

Within the sector, UBS' top picks are CITIC SEC (06030.HK) and HTSC (06886.HK).
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