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<Research>Macquarie Trims Forecasts on MO 3Q Gaming Sector GGR, EBITDA, Prefers Galaxy
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39
Positive
75
Negative
38
In wake of the less promotional environment and the impact of macroeconomic headwinds on demand, Macquarie lowered its forecast for Macau's GGR and gaming industry EBITDA for 3Q24 by 5% and 8% respectively, Macquarie said in a report. The broker expected the market share of SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK), WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) and SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) to escalate QoQ in 3Q24, while MGM CHINA (02282.HK), GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) and MELCO (MLCO.US) will record a decline. The broker also mentioned that Macau's retail industry continued to face hurdles in 3Q24, but customer traffic and retail sentiment improved during the National Day Golden Week.

Macquarie favored GALAXY ENT among Macau gaming stocks, mainly due to its strong property pipeline and ample hotel room inventory. It also believed that SANDS CHINA LTD will warrant attention after the peak of renovations, and expected the company's market share to recover in 2H24.

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Macquarie's investment ratings and target prices for Macau gaming stocks are as follows:
Stock | Investment rating | Target price (HKD)
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) | Outperform | $56.8 → $50.6
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) | Neutral | $2.4 → $2.6
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) | Outperform | $24.9 → $25.3
MELCO (MLCO.US) | Outperform | US$9.3 → US$9
MGM CHINA (02282.HK) | Outperform | $19 → $17.3
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) | Outperform | $9.6 → $9
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