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<Research>JPM Predicts HK Developers May Not Outpace Mkt After Actual Rate Cut; Top Picks Include LINK REIT, SWIREPROPERTIES
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JPMorgan commented in its recent report that Hong Kong developers have outpaced the HSI by 8% since early July mainly on the back of rate cut expectations. However, the broker believed that after the actual rate cut, Hong Kong developers may not necessarily continue to outrun the market as the fundamentals of the industry (residential, office, and retail) may remain lukewarm.

As most Hong Kong real estate companies have already announced their results, the broker was of the view that the rate cut expectations have largely been digested by the market. As a result, the broker was more selective about developer stocks, prioritizing companies with the following characteristics: higher dividend certainty, commitment to share repurchase plans, and involvement in relatively resilient sub-sectors (essential consumer goods).

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JPMorgan's top picks included LINK REIT (00823.HK) (expected to announce interim results and dividends in November, which could exceed expectations), SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) (committed to share repurchases and mid-single-digit per-share dividend growth), and CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) (lower exposure to China business risks and recovering profit growth), all rated Overweight with a TP of $42, $16.2, and $50 respectively.

Meanwhile, the broker remained cautious about NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) (facing liquidity pressure) and WHARF REIC (01997.HK) (expected to be affected by weak luxury retail sales in Hong Kong).
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