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<Research>Citi: US Effective Tariff Rate on CN Rises to ~65%; CN Econ Growth May Drop 2.4 ppts
With the announcement of reciprocal tariffs and the termination of de minimis exemptions by the US, the effective US tariff rate on China rose to about 65%, an almost unsustainable...
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<Research>Citi: US Effective Tariff Rate on CN Rises to ~65%; CN Econ Growth May Drop 2.4 ppts
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With the announcement of reciprocal tariffs and the termination of de minimis exemptions by the US, the effective US tariff rate on China rose to about 65%, an almost unsustainable level of tariffs for US-China trade, and in under such an extreme scenario, China's economic growth could decline by 2.4 ppts and exports could fall by 15.4 ppts if no offsetting measures are considered, Citi Research issued a research report saying.

China's current total tariff rate on the US is likely to be around 65%, compared to the 54% rate confirmed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (34% reciprocal tariffs and 20% fentanyl tariffs), and the earlier Section 301 tariffs are likely to remain in place, with an effective rate of around 11% through the end of 2024, the broker noted.

Related NewsISM Manufacturing PMI for Mar in United States is 49, lower than the previous value of 50.3. The forecast was 49.5.
The tariff exemption for de minimis imports will end on 2 May. The effective rate exceeds the 60% rate advocated by US President Donald Trump during his election campaign. Citi Research's previously discussed hard decoupling scenario appears to be playing out.

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