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Bank Indonesia Unexpectedly Hikes Rates by 25 bps, Rupiah Gains 0.6%; Barclays Expects Further 50 bps Hike at Next Week Meeting
Bank Indonesia unexpectedly announced on Tuesday (9th) that it raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%. Following a larger-than-expected 50 bps hike in M...
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Bank Indonesia Unexpectedly Hikes Rates by 25 bps, Rupiah Gains 0.6%; Barclays Expects Further 50 bps Hike at Next Week Meeting
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Bank Indonesia unexpectedly announced on Tuesday (9th) that it raised its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5%. Following a larger-than-expected 50 bps hike in May, the central bank has delivered a cumulative 75 bps increase within three weeks. Bank Indonesia had originally been scheduled to hold its policy meeting next week.

This marks only the second off-cycle rate hike since Governor Perry Warjiyo took office about eight years ago. The central bank believes further measures are needed to stabilize the rupiah by raising yields and offering various incentives to encourage foreign capital inflows.

In a statement, the central bank said the rate hike is a follow-up measure aimed at strengthening rupiah stability in response to heightened global volatility caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The statement added that the move is also a pre-emptive step to ensure inflation remains within the government’s target range in 2026 and 2027.

The rupiah rose as much as 0.7% during the Asian session, marking its biggest gain in seven months, and was last quoted at 18,085 per USD, up nearly 0.6%. Indonesian government bonds continued to face selling pressure, with the 10-year bond yield climbing 23 bps. The Jakarta Composite Index (IDX) rebounded from around a five-and-a-half-year trough, surging as much as 5.3% and last standing at 5,554 points, up 4%. The rupiah has depreciated nearly 8% this year, while foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD3.5 billion from Indonesian equities, contributing to a decline of over 35% in the IDX. According to Bloomberg tracking of more than 90 major global equity markets, the IDX has been among the worst performers.

The emergency move comes amid widespread investor concerns over the country’s spending plans and President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist and populist economic agenda. Efforts to defend the rupiah have also drained foreign exchange reserves, which in May fell for a fifth consecutive month, marking the longest streak of declines since 2018.

Bloomberg cited economists at Barclays Bank and strategists at PT Mega Capital Sekuritas as saying after the decision that they expect Bank Indonesia to raise rates further at its June 18 meeting, with the possibility of another 50 bps hike.(da/u)~

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