The GDP of China in 2024 was preliminarily estimated to be RMB134.9 trillion, representing an increment of 5% at constant prices over the previous year, Minsheng Securities released a report, citing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. On a quarterly basis, it grew by 5.3% YoY in 1Q, 4.7% in 2Q, 4.6% in 3Q and 5.4% in 4Q.

The 5.4% GDP growth rate recorded in 4Q24 in the mainland was assumed by the broker to be juiced by consumption under the “trade-in” policy; the manufacturing sector, which played the role of an “anchor”; and the stock market, which experienced a turnover upsurge.

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However, these may not be able to outline the “whole picture” of the economy in 2024, the broker opined. A 5% growth rate for the whole year came no easy, which told the story of the contradiction of old energies and the rise of new energies.

Minsheng Securities pointed out that the direction of “new quality” will continue, and the incremental growth lies in how the financial policies will “benefit the people's livelihood and boost consumption”, which also constitutes the two major focuses in 2025.

In terms of investment, as “new quality” industries still cannot entirely replace traditional industries, the development of “new quality productive forces” is expected to accelerate and become a new driving force for economic growth.

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In the consumption front, the core of closing the consumption gap between China and other countries lies in service consumption. As commodity consumption approaches saturation, further support for service consumption, including cultural tourism as well as elderly care and childcare, may become another highlight of the "5%" growth rate in 2025.