Although there is uncertainty around the recovery of consumer sentiment, strong domestic demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is expected to persist in 4Q24, driven by the government's enhanced scrappage and replacement program. However, the EU's tariff hike may affect China's auto exports and slacken wholesale deliveries by automakers before the end of the year.

Recently, the European Commission finalized the imposition of anti-subsidy import duties on Chinese-made battery electric vehicles (BEVs), ranging from 17% to 35.3%. The tariffs will be effective from October 30, 2024 for a period of five years. Fitch expected these tariffs to further curb China's exports of BEVs to the EU.

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From January to September, China's exports of BEVs to the EU shed 7%. However, Chinese automakers may counteract these changes by increasing local production in Europe, which is expected to mitigate the repercussion of the aforementioned tariff hikes in the medium to long term.