The latest China housing survey by UBS Evidence Lab demonstrated that 29% of consumer respondents in Mainland China (unweighted) said they intended to buy property in Hong Kong after the abolition of stamp duty, an elevation of 4 pts HoH, indicating that demand for Hong Kong property is accelerating.

Mark Leung, a Hong Kong real estate analyst at UBS Investment Bank, opined that the accelerated willingness of mainland homebuyers is boon to the Hong Kong residential market, especially new home sales, which accounted for more than 50% of transaction volume in 1H24.

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In addition, the intention to migrate to Hong Kong also supported UBS' optimistic expectations for Hong Kong's future population growth, which is expected to drive a structural upward trend in residential rents (CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2030). With mortgage rates expected to drift lower, the broker expected Hong Kong residential prices to rise again (0-5%) in 2025.

The five most popular districts in Hong Kong among mainland homebuyers are Wan Chai, Kowloon City, Sha Tin, Central and Western District, and Yau Tsim Mong. In terms of budget, most mainland homebuyers are targeting properties under $8 million.