Xiao Feng, co-head of Hong Kong and China industrial research at CITIC CLSA, predicted that this year's passenger car sales in China will be the same as last year's, with EV penetration expected to reach about 45% this year and 70% in the next three years.

He explained that the forecast was based on a slight YoY decline of 0.5% in passenger car sales in the first seven months of 2024. However, the Central Government's policy to promote the replacement of old cars with new ones should be able to support the steady development of domestic demand this year. He also predicted that if there is no stimulus policy in 2025, Mainland's passenger car sales will drop by about 5% YoY.

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Feng mentioned that BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)  +2.200 (+0.906%)    Short selling $309.92M; Ratio 15.830%   is leading the mass market this year, while other new EV companies are gradually taking over the high-end market. He believed BYD would be able to deliver double-digit net profit and sales of 6 million to 10 million vehicles in the medium to long term.

He also pointed out that although BYD's operating efficiency is favourable compared with its global peers, it still suffers from structural backwardness in terms of average selling price and R&D costs.

In addition, Feng believed the price war among Chinese carmakers will not end, and the next price war may take place at the end of this year, possibly with the first shot fired by BYD.

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(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-09-19 16:25.)