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<Research>Macquarie Drops NIO-SW (09866.HK) 2026/ 2027 Sales Forecasts, Downgrades Rating to Neutral
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NIO-SW (09866.HK) narrowed its non-GAAP net loss in 3Q25, which was better than expected, with effective cost control, according to Macquarie's research report. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive in 3Q25, while profit margins for various models continued to improve.

Macquarie lowered its FY2026/ 2027 sales forecasts for NIO-SW by 24%/ 27% each, resulting in cut in sales predictions by 25%/ 27%, and projected that, as the proportion of large SUV sales increases, gross profit margin will improve.

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Based on a forecast of 0.8x PS ratio for FY2026, Macquarie trimmed its target prices for NIO-SW's H-shares/ US stock by 23%/ 21% to $41/ US$5.3, from $53/ US$6.7, respectively. The broker also downgraded ratings to Neutral.
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