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HK Govt Population Report Expects Elderly People to Account for Over 30% in 2036
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) today (September 8) released a set of population projection figures. Under the baseline population projections, the Hong Kong Resident P...
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The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) today (September 8) released a set of population projection figures. Under the baseline population projections, the Hong Kong Resident Population is projected to increase from 7.34 million in mid-2016 to a peak of 8.22 million in mid-2043, and then decline to 7.72 million by mid-2066. The average annual growth rate over the entire projection period is projected to be 0.1 per cent.
From mid-2016 to mid-2043, the population is projected to grow at a rate of 0.4 per cent per annum. Yet, with a significant increase in the number of deaths due to an ageing population, coupled with a decrease in the number of births, the population is projected to decrease at a rate of 0.3 per cent per annum from mid-2043 to mid-2066.
Over the entire period from mid-2016 to mid-2066, the overall population is projected to increase by 390,000. There would be a natural decrease (i.e. deaths less births) of 1.49 million and a net movement (i.e. inflow less outflow) of 1.88 million.
The total fertility rate of Hong Kong, which is the number of children born alive to 1,000 women during their lifetime, has been consistently below the replacement level of 2,100 over the past two decades. It decreased from 1,191 live births per 1 000 women in 1996 to a historical low of 901 in 2003. The total fertility rate rebounded in recent years and reached 1,205 in 2016. In the fertility projections, reference is made to various factors, including the proportion of ever married women, age-specific marital fertility rates and births born in Hong Kong to women from the Mainland of China. The total fertility rate is projected to decrease gradually from 1 205 live births per 1,000 women in 2016 to 1,166 in 2066.
Hong Kong has experienced a continuous decline in the mortality rate during 1996 to 2016, leading to an increase in life expectancy. In 2016, the expectation of life at birth was 81.3 years for males and 87.3 years for females. Compared with other economies, Hong Kong enjoys a very low mortality rate. In 2066, the expectation of life at birth is projected to increase to 87.1 years for males and 93.1 years for females. The number of deaths is projected to increase from about 46,700 per year at the beginning of the projection period to about 98,000 per year at the end of the projection period. The increase in the number of deaths is mainly attributable to the growing proportion of older persons in the population despite a longer life expectancy.
There will be a continuous net inflow of persons into the Hong Kong population over the entire projection period. A major component of the net movement of the population is holders of the One-Way Permit (OWP). Taking into account the trend of OWP holders coming to Hong Kong in recent years, the C&SD has adopted a daily inflow of 100 OWP holders (or 36,500 OWP holders per year) as the long-term assumption.
A government spokesman noted that the Mainland authorities have no plan to revise the existing daily OWP quota of 150. The OWP scheme continues to enable the orderly entry of eligible persons (predominantly separated spouses and their children born in the Mainland) to come to Hong Kong for family reunion.
Population ageing is expected to continue. With post-war baby boomers entering old age, the number of elderly persons aged 65 and over is projected to more than double in the coming 20 years. Excluding foreign domestic helpers, the number of elderly persons will increase from 1.16 million (16.6 per cent of the total population) in 2016 by over 1 million to 2.37 million (31.1 per cent) in 2036. In 2066, the number of elderly persons is projected to reach 2.59 million (36.6 per cent). Meanwhile, due to the persistently low fertility rate, the proportion of the population aged under 15 is projected to decrease gradually from 11.8 per cent in 2016 to 9.2 per cent in 2066, the Deputy Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Ms Marion Chan, said.
The ageing trend is also revealed by the increasing median age of the population, which will rise from 44.3 in 2016 to 50.9 in 2036, and further to 54.5 in 2066 (excluding foreign domestic helpers).
Excluding foreign domestic helpers, the sex ratio (i.e. the number of males per 1 000 females) of the population is projected to fall noticeably, from 925 in 2016 to 862 in 2036 and 800 in 2066. Variations in the sex ratio by age group are expected. For the population aged under 25, the sex ratio will be higher, i.e. more males than females. For the age group 25 to 44, the sex ratio will be lower mainly due to entry of OWP holders, many being Hong Kong men's wives in the Mainland.
In addition, based on the updated labour force projections, the total labour force (excluding foreign domestic helpers) is projected to rise from 3.62 million in 2016 to reach a plateau in 2019 to 2022 at 3.67 million to 3.68 million, and then decrease to 3.51 million in 2031. It will then hover between 3.49 million and 3.51 million until 2038, before decreasing to 3.13 million in 2066. The overall labour force participation rate (i.e. the proportion of the labour force in the population aged 15 and over) is projected to decrease from 59.2 per cent in 2016 to 49.6 per cent in 2066.
Based on the updated domestic household projections, the number of households will increase from 2.51 million in 2016 to a peak of 2.97 million in 2046. This represents an increase of 460 000 households in the next 30 years. After that, the number of households will slowly decrease to 2.95 million in 2051. The average household size is projected to decrease continuously, from 2.8 persons per household in 2016 to 2.7 persons in 2051.
Population projections provide a common basis for the Government in planning public services and facilities. They are regularly updated to take account of information on the latest developments of the population. The latest projection results suggest that population ageing will continue, and is expected to be most rapid in the coming 20 years. Society should get prepared for this demographic challenge, Chan said.
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