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柏瑞投資料日本央行未來一至兩季內再加息一次 估美聯儲未來12個月減息三次
柏瑞投資表示,日本的通脹格局已出現根本性轉變。雖然早前的通脹主要由食品及能源價格推動,但隨著相關壓力消退,由工資及服務業帶動的基本通脹料將企穩於1%左右的水平。從經濟周期來看,目前已有明確跡象顯示經濟增長與通脹雙雙見頂回落。通脹率早前升穿4%見頂後,現已回落至央行目標水平,且上升動能正持續減弱。雖然預期日本央行將繼續加息,但考慮到經濟基本面轉弱,加息步伐料將...
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柏瑞投資料日本央行未來一至兩季內再加息一次 估美聯儲未來12個月減息三次
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柏瑞投資表示,日本的通脹格局已出現根本性轉變。雖然早前的通脹主要由食品及能源價格推動,但隨著相關壓力消退,由工資及服務業帶動的基本通脹料將企穩於1%左右的水平。
從經濟周期來看,目前已有明確跡象顯示經濟增長與通脹雙雙見頂回落。通脹率早前升穿4%見頂後,現已回落至央行目標水平,且上升動能正持續減弱。雖然預期日本央行將繼續加息,但考慮到經濟基本面轉弱,加息步伐料將緩慢漸進,幅度亦會低於目前市場預期。
日本央行一直強調貨幣政策正常化,而非轉向更鷹派的立場。雖然當局有意推動正常化,但受高市政府的補貼措施等因素影響,近月通脹升勢已見緩和。即使相關政策效應僅屬短暫性質,整體通脹壓力確實已明顯降溫。
柏瑞投資預期日本央行將於未來一至兩季內再加息一次。其後的政策將更偏向理論層面,當局的目標是將政策利率推向1%區間低位的中性水平。整個加息過程料將循序漸進,新政府亦傾向採取審慎穩健的步伐,而非急於收緊政策。
整體而言,日本在通脹問題上受到多重夾擊,一方面出現通脹滯後令市場始料不及,另一方面則面臨政治不確定性。在種種因素疊加下,日圓一度大幅貶值。然而,柏瑞投資認為相關壓力現正逐步消散,預期日圓將由現水平迎來顯著回升。
另外,柏瑞投資已調整對聯儲局的政策展望,將未來12個月的減息預期由一次增至三次,並相應將美國10年期國債孳息率預測由4.25%下調至4%。此外,已剔除此前對歐洲央行將再減息一次的預測,目前市場對此觀點亦漸有共識。綜合上述調整,柏瑞投資認為美元前景轉弱,未來一年料將轉趨下行。(sl/da)
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