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Schroders Continues to Favor US and Tech Stocks, Turns Bearish on USD
Schroders' multi-asset investment team stated that disruptions to the energy supply chain are likely to be more persistent than the market initially estimated at the outbreak of th...
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Schroders Continues to Favor US and Tech Stocks, Turns Bearish on USD
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Schroders' multi-asset investment team stated that disruptions to the energy supply chain are likely to be more persistent than the market initially estimated at the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. On the other hand, corporate earnings remain resilient. After incorporating the impact of rising energy prices into its models, Schroders found divergent regional performances, with the US relatively less affected, while Europe and Asia appear more vulnerable.

On equities, as price gains have lagged earnings growth, valuations have improved slightly. Given uncertainties stemming from geopolitics and technological transformation, Schroders considers the pullback in valuations reasonable, but expects continued corporate earnings growth to further drive equity market returns. It continues to favor US and Tech stocks, as earnings trends of companies in these segments are the most supportive. Meanwhile, for risk diversification, Schroders said it has turned positive on UK and Canadian equities since April, as they have higher exposure to the energy sector.

Schroders has shifted its view on the USD from bullish to bearish to reflect the relatively dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. It continues to favor emerging market local currency bonds and has upgraded its view on the JPY. The firm also reiterated its positive view on gold. Although it noted an increase in the correlation between gold and equities, it believes that, given concerns over long-term debt sustainability, gold can provide better defensive characteristics than government bonds.

In summary, Schroders said its core forecast remains for improving nominal growth, supported by government spending and strategic investments in defense and supply chain resilience. Therefore, it remains positive on equities. However, to reflect rising risks to overall economic growth from the volatile Middle East situation, it has revised its view on government bonds back to Neutral and upgraded its view on agricultural commodities and energy-related stocks. (ha/da)~

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