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Barings commentary on recent market sell-off
Christopher Smart, head of macroeconomic and geopolitical research, comments on the sell-off: The sharp sell-off we are seeing in the market has left a lot of folks wondering if...
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Barings commentary on recent market sell-off
Institution : Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited
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2018/10/12 13:09
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Christopher Smart, head of macroeconomic and geopolitical research, comments on the sell-off:
 
The sharp sell-off we are seeing in the market has left a lot of folks wondering if this is the beginning of the end. Investors shouldn’t panic. Yes, there are signs of reflation in the United States with unemployment at record lows and wages rising, but inflationary expectations still seem muted and the Fed doesn’t seem like it’s behind the curve.  On the other hand, recent weakness in housing and autos looks manageable as long as household balance sheets remain strong.
 
Of course, we all know that markets react emotionally sometimes, and there is plenty to be emotional about.  If political tensions in Washington didn’t seem like they could become any more fraught and divisive, they just did last week.  Following a very hawkish speech by Vice President Pence, tensions with China look to be getting worse before they get better.  And there is worrying news about Italy’s budget, Brazil’s elections and a bizarre deterioration of relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia around accusations the gruesome murder of a dissident journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.  Oh, and the President said the Fed chair was “crazy.”  And our friends in programmed trading may have had a hand in it all, too.
 
Again, so far, it has the feel of a temporary correction that will take some of the excess air out of tech stocks.  But the volatile markets mean that economic data (like rising productivity) and corporate earnings (which are under revision) will get even closer scrutiny in the weeks ahead.
Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited's Commentary
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